The Increased Probability of Interest Rate Cuts Drives Iron Ore Prices to Hold Up Well [SMM Brief Review]

Published: Sep 4, 2025 17:22

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Iron ore futures held up well today, with the most-traded contract I2601 closing at 791.5, up 1.67% from the previous trading day. Traders showed active selling interest, while steel mills purchased as needed. Market transactions were mediocre. In Shandong, mainstream transaction prices for PB fines were at 780-785 yuan/mt, up 8-15 yuan/mt from yesterday; in Tangshan, PB fines traded around 790-795 yuan/mt, up 10-15 yuan/mt from yesterday.

Industrial data today showed apparent demand declined significantly, but the market reacted mildly due to the special impact of this week's "93 Military Parade." Meanwhile, as environmental protection-driven production restrictions ended, blast furnaces at steel mills gradually resumed production, boosting iron ore demand and providing strong support for ore prices. Additionally, expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut next week continued to rise, fueling overall positive sentiment and driving further gains in iron ore futures. Ore prices are expected to maintain a strong fluctuating trend in the short term.

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